Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 542 · ORD → LAX

departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 542 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?