Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 564 · IAH → YYC

departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 12:54 PM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of snow forecast at YYC that day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ YYC usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

YYC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 564 · IAH → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?