Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 948 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 948 · SFO → LHR

departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 10:32 AM GMT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LHR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 948 · SFO → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?