Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
VB 617 · IAH → MTY
departs 11:16 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MTY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MTY?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at IAH that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MTY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.