WN 1003 · SJC → AUS

took off 7:30 AM PT · expected to land 12:27 PM CT (scheduled 7:17 AM PT → 12:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1003 · SJC → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?