Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1036
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1036 · BWI → JAX
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.