Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1144
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1144 · BWI → RSW
departs 8:21 AM ET · arrives 11:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at RSW that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
RSW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.