Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1146 · BUR → SFO
departs 7:47 AM PT · arrives 9:07 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Sat 10/31 13%
Mon 11/2 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
7am departures from BUR are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.