WN 1151 · AUS → PHX

took off 5:50 PM CT · landed 5:50 PM MT (scheduled 4:27 PM CT → 4:59 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1151 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?