Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1641 · AUA → MCO
departs 3:10 PM AST · arrives 6:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 44%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±8 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.