WN 1772 · BWI → SAN

departs 6:21 AM ET · arrives 8:42 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from BWI are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1772 · BWI → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?