Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
WN 1787 · SAN → AUS
departs 9:40 AM PT · arrives 2:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 11/3 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.