Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1791 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:25 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.