WN 1792 · BNA → SAN

took off 8:33 AM CT · expected to land 10:24 AM PT (scheduled 8:02 AM CT → 10:16 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1792 · BNA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?