WN 1978 · HNL → OGG

took off 8:02 AM HT · landed 8:18 AM HT (scheduled 7:55 AM HT → 8:45 AM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.84 in

OGG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1978 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?