Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2130 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, October 28

WN 2130 · SDF → MDW

took off 7:08 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:08 PM ET → 7:32 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2130 · SDF → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?