Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2216
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2216 · JAX → BWI
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Sun 11/1 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from JAX are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.