WN 2230 · KOA → SMF

took off 10:01 AM HT · landed 5:32 PM PT (scheduled 9:56 AM HT → 5:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at KOA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

↓ 9am departures from KOA are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.08 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2230 · KOA → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?