Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2296 · LAS → HNL
departs 10:13 AM PT · arrives 1:19 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.