WN 2435 · STL → SAT

took off 8:40 AM CT · expected to land 10:26 AM CT (scheduled 8:27 AM CT → 10:45 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2435 · STL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?