WN 2447 · LAS → TPA

took off 6:05 PM PT · landed 12:40 AM ET (scheduled 3:59 PM PT → 11:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2447 · LAS → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?