Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2451 · FLL → STL
departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.28 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.