WN 2452 · AUS → MEM

took off 3:11 PM CT · landed 4:28 PM CT (scheduled 2:21 PM CT → 4:14 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MEM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2452 · AUS → MEM

Odds over time

How late did it get to MEM?