Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 2461 · LAS → EUG
departs 10:40 AM PT · arrives 12:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EUG at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.