Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2469 · BWI → MCO
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 8:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.