Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 2491 · LAX → MDW
departs 12:01 AM PT · arrives 5:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
12am departures from LAX are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.