Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 2523 · PHX → MCO
departs 12:15 PM MT · arrives 7:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.