Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2534 · LGA → DEN
departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 42%
Fri 10/30 63%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 53%
Mon 11/2 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.