Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 2576 · PHX → PDX
departs 12:39 PM MT · arrives 3:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 6%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at PDX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.