Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2649 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

WN 2649 · DEN → LGA

departs 11:37 AM MT · arrives 5:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±8 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2649 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?