Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 273 · MBJ → MCO
departs 12:05 PM EST · arrives 3:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±11 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MBJ
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.