WN 2762 · OAK → SNA

took off 5:49 PM PT · landed 6:58 PM PT (scheduled 5:32 PM PT → 7:03 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,143 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2762 · OAK → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?