WN 2765 · SAT → TPA

took off 1:43 PM CT · landed 4:35 PM ET (scheduled 1:35 PM CT → 5:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2765 · SAT → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?