Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2785 · ROC → MCO
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 4:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.