Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2802
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2802 · MCO → SJU
departs 8:54 AM ET · arrives 11:44 AM AT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 19%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.