WN 2804 · SMF → ONT

took off 10:44 AM PT · landed 11:40 AM PT (scheduled 10:37 AM PT → 12:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ONT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at ONT that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2804 · SMF → ONT

Odds over time

How late did it get to ONT?