WN 2871 · ONT → OAK

took off 4:24 PM PT · landed 5:17 PM PT (scheduled 4:12 PM PT → 5:34 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from ONT are often late

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at ONT that day

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,686 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2871 · ONT → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?