WN 296 · AUS → TPA

departs 9:02 AM CT · arrives 12:31 PM ET

Your aircraft is N297WN (B737), coming in as WN 474 from BNA: landed 8:06 AM CT.

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 296 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?