Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
WN 2978 · MDW → SAN
departs 6:26 AM CT · arrives 8:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 8%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
MDW is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.