WN 3003 · MDW → TPA

took off 1:53 PM CT · expected to land 4:56 PM ET (scheduled 1:17 PM CT → 4:52 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3003 · MDW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?