Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3172
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 3172 · LAS → HNL
departs 8:34 AM PT · arrives 11:40 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 21%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.