WN 3222 · MDW → SMF

took off 10:31 AM CT · expected to land 12:31 PM PT (scheduled 10:10 AM CT → 12:30 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3222 · MDW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?