WN 3573 · RDU → TPA

took off 11:27 AM ET · landed 12:57 PM ET (scheduled 11:22 AM ET → 1:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at RDU that day

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at TPA that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3573 · RDU → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?