WN 3664 · LAS → SJC

took off 8:52 PM PT · landed 9:52 PM PT (scheduled 7:55 PM PT → 9:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3664 · LAS → SJC

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJC?