Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 3761 · SEA → PHX
departs 11:34 AM PT · arrives 2:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 30%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.