Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 3789 · SFO → STL
departs 11:50 AM PT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.