Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 3860 · SJU → MCO
departs 10:05 AM AT · arrives 1:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.