Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3917
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 3917 · MCO → ORF
departs 9:35 AM ET · arrives 11:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.