Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 398 · AUS → MCO
departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.