Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4092 · STL → MCO
departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±9 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.